Ukraine and Russia: What this means for Africa

The Russia and Ukraine conflict raises familiar and new uneasiness for African governments and Africans all-over the globe.

On the 21st of February, the strong-man President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, announced a full scale ‘military operation’ in another sovereign country and neighbour, Ukraine. This was a move that surprised most spectators.

There are many reasons for this act that has been termed an ‘invasion’ by the Western community. One of the main reasons is the existential threat to Russia imposed by modern Ukraine. The final trigger being Ukraine's flirting with NATO (an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries). 

Another reason is the reckless ambition of a man, Putin, who feels the reins of power slipping from his grasp. 

Some dig further into conspiracy theories of a new world order and the much necessary end of the US dominance in world politics. Others say it is all of these reasons combined, and more.

Regardless of the reason, there is a conflict currently in Europe which has been deceptively termed the ‘first’ major conflict in Europe after the Second World War. As expected, the world has responded, with Western leaders publicly decrying Russia’s aggression and placing unprecedented economic and other sanctions, which target the country’s finance, energy, and ministry sectors. Albeit, these countries are still buying oil and natural gas from the Country being sanctioned. 

African governments have also joined their voices to denounce the belligerent actions of Russia. Kenya’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Martin Kimani, was one of the first African politicians to criticise the escalation in Ukraine by comparing it to the devastating colonial scramble on African nations.

Ghana and Gabon followed Kenya, declaring their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. The South African government did not respond as quickly as other nations considering its chequered history, however it did eventually call for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, insisting on diplomacy and compromise for the settlement of the dispute. 

Asides the global apprehension of the start of “World War III” and a nuclear  holocaust, the Russia/Ukraine conflict raises familiar and new uneasiness for African governments and Africans all-over the globe. Here are the key ways this new European conflict will affect Africans across the world.  

“STRONGER NATIONS CAN ABUSE THE TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY OF LESS MILITARILY CAPABLE STATES, SUCCESSFULLY.”

International law generally recognises the sovereignty of states; this means countries have absolute control and powers within the boundaries of their territory. This is a well-recognised principle of law, recognised by international organisations such as the United Nations. 

This principle underpins all international policies and relations between countries. However, this has not always been the case with African countries, as their internal policies and events are usually directly, or surreptitiously influenced by western states such as the United States, United Kingdom or Belgium. The infamous assassinations of Thomas Sankara and Patrice Lumumba are evidence of this. 

The launch of military forces from Russia to Ukraine reopens fresh wounds of imperialism in the political spheres of African states. If Russia’s aim in Ukraine is successful, it will inadvertently relay a message that in global politics, the stronger nations can abuse and invalidate the territorial sovereignty of a less militarily capable State, successfully. 

This will be a worrying development for African states, which have been the centre of ideological squabbles (capitalism vs socialism/communism) between the Western countries and the Eastern bloc. If international law and the United Nations fail to intervene in Ukraine, how will they be able to stop the next foreign villain who decides to flex its military on African soil? With the current state of most African militaries and their inferior status in comparison to the Western State military, this is a real concern.

NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA'S OIL AND GAS PRODUCERS 

A more on-hand effect on African states is the uncertainty of the price of oil and gas, and the conduct of international trade. 

Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, since 2014, due to this conflict. This positions oil-rich countries like Angola and Nigeria to benefit from the rising value of oil, which eventually might have a positive effect on their national economies. For non-oil producing states however, the cost of transportation and importation of oil will definitely increase, leading to further inflation, already worsened by the covid-19 crisis. 

With Russia being a principal supplier of gas to the majority of Europe for energy, an escalation of the conflict can lead to European states seeking supply of gas from alternative sources such as African countries.

Tanzania’s President, Samia Suluhu Hassan indicated in mid-February that her country will seize this opportunity to tap into the European market. The country which has Africa's 6th largest gas reserves is looking to obtain a $30 billion investment for the construction of offshore liquified natural gas projects. 

Countries like Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria, are already on the move to increase export of gas to the European markets through the Trans-Saharan Gas pipeline, costing $13 billion. Additional sanctions on Russia, and extension of the conflict with Ukraine and the after-effects may see an increase in patronage of African produced natural gas, which will be beneficial to the states themselves.

INCREASED PRICES ON EVERYDAY COMMODITIES

On trade, Russia accounts for $4 billion in agricultural products imported to the continent, ranging from wheat to sunflower oil. It contributes up to 10% of global wheat production, while Ukraine contributes 4%, and both countries account for 30% and 20% of global maize exports respectively.

African markets such as South Africa and Egypt are primary trade partners with these East European countries for their wheat and maize consumption. South Africa already imports close to 30% of wheat from Russia, although its primary trading partners are Argentina and Brazil. 

The conflict, instability and sanctions will lead to a temporary stall of exports from the belligerent countries, which can lead to an increase to the prices of wheat and maize.

With wheat consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa reaching 25 million back in 2013, the consistent increase in population and urbanisation has led to an upsurge in the production of bread, biscuits, and noodles with wheat. An increase in the price of these commodities can have negative effects on working class Africans who are reeling from the dilapidating effects of covid-19.  

STRANDED AFRICANS

A harrowing aspect of this conflict in eastern Europe is the well-documented prejudice against Africans who are trying to flee the conflict areas. As is with most conflict affected areas, there is a consistent stream of displaced civilians to neighbouring countries for humanitarian aid and protection.

The UN High Commission for Refugees has stated that more than half a million people have fled Ukraine since the invasion began. This is the same for the thousands of Africans in Ukraine, most who are there for studies. 

Morocco has up to 8,000 students in Ukraine, with Nigeria having up to 4,000 and Egypt with 3,500 students. 

With all civilian flights restricted in Ukraine, most of these Africans have to find alternative means of fleeing the conflict zone; finding their way to the borders of Poland and Hungary. There are consistent reports of Africans being discriminated against and denied access to trains/buses, and access through borders due to them being ‘Black’. 

This is in clear contravention of the UN Convention which permits everyone fleeing conflict zone safe passage. Most of these students have gone on social media to outcry this particular treatment with video documentation of this very obvious act of racism. 

Racism in Europe is heavily documented and well entrenched, however, it is appalling that this ugly concept shows its head even at a time of humanitarian crisis. The government of Nigeria, although falling short of providing quick and safe escape options for its citizens in Ukraine, has openly condemned the treatment of Africans who are seeking to leave Ukraine. The African Union recently also condemned the discrimination Africans are facing in their attempt to flee the conflict zone.

Without timely action on the part of African governments, their citizens may remain trapped in a precarious position which has the ability of impairing their lives permanently.

This ugly incident is also a reminder to Africans of the inferior treatment continuously meted out by Europeans due to their differences in nationalities and skin colour, and the saddening truth that this treatment will continue until African state leaders take more concrete steps for recognised equality in international law.  

CRYPTOCURRENCY IN ACTION  

To support the Ukrainian government and military, there have been charitable movements collecting donations in the form of cryptocurrencies all over the world. The donations have reached up to $37 million worth of cryptocurrencies.  

This attempt by global citizens of the world for support has also been acknowledged by the embattled Ukrainian government, as they appeal for more contributions.

Also, as part of the numerous sanctions on Russia, specific Russian banks have been disconnected from SWIFT, the international network of banks to conduct secure money transfer across borders. This means that certain banks are unable to move funds for their clients, making trading difficult. 

As a result, Russian companies have veered to the use of cryptocurrencies to transmit funds and conduct transactions, escaping the implemented sanctions. 

Cryptocurrencies are also used by people fleeing Ukraine to transfer their finances easily, without intermediaries such as banks or other financial institutions.  

This is an obvious test of the value of cryptocurrencies, which it has clearly passed, as it is being used to conduct transactions without restrictions in times of conflict. 

Although there was a fall in the value of bitcoin when the crisis started, the value has since shot up, as it is used as a stabilising currency in a time of uncertainty. This undoubtedly will  promote the use and adoption of cryptocurrencies globally.  Once again, African States are presented with evidence of the efficiency of the technology and the necessity to develop copious regulatory frameworks for its recognition and adoption within their borders.