OPINION - Mali: stability in chaos or chaos in stability
Mali has been plunged into insecurity and a difficult political and economic situation for a long time, the military takeover seems to have rekindled hope for a better future for the population.
A CORRECTIVE COUP - HOW DID THE COUNTRY GET HERE?
On August 18, 2020, Mali's armed forces overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK), who was in power since 2013, and Prime Minister Boubou Cissé. The mutiny was fueled by the war involving jihadist Salafists and inter-ethnic conflicts in the country since 2012. Alleged irregularities in the 2020 legislative elections were the last straw, and were at the root of the challenges to power since June 2020, which was led by the June 5 Movement - Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP).
In the aftermath of the August 2020 coup, the military announced the creation of the Comité National pour le Salut du Peuple (CNSP), led by Colonel Assimi Goïta. As soon as they took power, the military putschists announced they wanted a civilian transition as soon as possible. - with the transitional president being either a civilian or military. However, following their meeting with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) missions from August 22 to 24, 2020, the coup plotters suggested a transition period of three years. This proposal was rejected by ECOWAS, which demanded a maximum transition of twelve months with a civilian president and prime minister appointed before September 15, 2020.
The political consultations failed to produce a mutual consensus, leading ECOWAS to accept an 18-month military transition . Subsequently, the junta appointed Bah N'Daw, Air Force officer and former minister of defense and veterans, as President of the transition, Assimi Goïta as Vice President, and Moctar Ouane was named Prime Minister.
The political and economic situation did not improve in Mali, with the fight against jihadism persisting, and general strikes shaking up the political sphere. This led Prime Minister Moctar Ouane to resign on May 14, 2021. However, he was quickly reappointed by President N'Daw, a decision taken without consulting the leaders of the former CNSP. Unfortunately, when the formation of the new government on May 24, 2021 excluded the two coup plotting colonels, former Minister of Defense, Sadio Camara, and former Minister of Security and Civil Protection, Modibo Koné, they felt betrayed. Colonel Goïta condemned this decision, which was taken without his consultation, even though he was the Vice President of the Transition.
Goïta and the leaders of the ex-CNSP proceeded to arrest President N'Daw and Prime Minister Ouane on the pretext that they had sabotaged the transition. French President Emmanuel Macron tagged this as a "coup d'état within a coup d'état" But as some describe it, this second seizure of power by Colonel Assimi Goïta could perhaps be called a corrective coup.
As of January 2022, Mali has been in transition for 17 months. General elections were scheduled for February 27, 2022. However, the junta no longer wishes to organize these elections, but rather to extend the transition to five years, citing the declinicing security situation. Consequently, the international community, including the European Union, France and the United States, supported the ECOWAS initiative to sanction Mali by closing the country's borders, suspending non-essential trade within the sub-region and taking other economic and financial measures.
At the United Nations, the decision to impose sanctions on Mali has been blocked by Russia and China, who claim to understand why Malian authorities need a longer transition period. In the hope of being able to stop the introduction of these sanctions, Colonel Goïta proposed reducing his projection of a five-year transition to four years, but to no avail. Without the desired result, he condemned ECOWAS for being instrumentalized by foreign powers such as France. As for Algeria, in its role as mediator, it proposed to the Malian authorities to set the duration of the transition at one year and to advocate political consultations with ECOWAS. The goal is to put in place a plan to end the crisis that would take into account both the aspirations of the Malian people and international requirements.
SHOULD THE TWO PUTSCH BE APPLAUDED?
IBK's overthrow was only a matter of time. His lethargy, while he was supposed to resolve various protests peacefully, eventually led to his forced resignation. First, there was the protest against the Constitutional Court, which validated the results of the March and April legislative elections, in which some 30 opposition seats were taken to benefit the presidential party. Then, when the protesters of the M5-RFP Movement demanded his resignation, the President again remained silent.
Subsequently, the M5-RFP remained tolerant, proposing solutions that consisted of keeping the President in place, but reforming the Constitutional Court and replacing the Prime Minister. Again, President IBK was not receptive to the various warning signs and ignored the demands. Unfortunately, when people feel that they have a leader who is not attentive, and who demonstrates that the experience of the citizen is at odds with his own, they feel they have no choice but to challenge authority. Hence the third major demonstration that led to the paralysis of the city of Bamako. Coups are generally not the best way to bring about change, however, they are the consequences of social unrest. Situations such as the misappropriation of public funds, and the closure of schools are valid reasons for people to take to the streets.
IBK was ousted from power because the population was thirsty for change. Thus, by launching the first coup, it is as if the military junta committed itself to responding to the aspirations of the people. Once in power, President N'Daw and his Prime Minister Ouane had the mission of implementing the major proposals of the roadmap for transition. Unfortunately, President N'Daw's transition has only made more promises without fulfilling any of them. In nine months of transition, corruption, embezzlement, and insecurity still persisted, facts that show that nothing has changed except the personalities in power. In addition, President N'Daw was under external pressure from international partners to organize an election in 18 months, a timetable that was far too tight for a government that still wanted to reform the electoral system. While little progress has been made on this front, CNSP leaders seem unwilling to hold elections either, as they want to extend the transition by three years. This led to a difference of opinion between the executive and the military of the CNSP. In addition, according to some opinions, President N'Daw and Prime Minister Ouane were obeying French interests, while the CNSP military favored a rapprochement with Russia. This is evidenced by the fact that the publication of the list of the new government, which led to the second coup, took place about 48 hours after Bah N'Daw's return from Paris. On the one hand, French military authorities are worried about the presence of Russian mercenaries of the Wagner in Mali.
IS THE MILITARY TAKEOVER THE SOLUTION FOR MALI?
Opinions are divided as to whether a military transition is the solution to a coup. Some think it is the solution to bring order to governance, while others think it is unfounded hope based on delusions.
In the case of Mali, a country that has been plunged into insecurity and a difficult political and economic situation for a long time, the military takeover seems to have rekindled hope for a better future for the population. On reflection, with a political class that has failed to meet the expectations of the people and continues to disappoint them, there is not much choice left for a people that would like a leader capable of bringing rigor to its governance. Indeed, the army has the reputation of being a disciplined and well-organized organization. For their part, the coup plotters seem to be convinced of the same logic. They believe that a minimum of three years of transition is necessary to "rebuild the state and the institutions” . The logic is to give time to completely eradicate the dinosaur personalities - who, for a long time, by their bad governance and dishonest politics, have plunged the country into obscurity - and to give a new generation the chance to bring their solutions to the political scene. A brief transition, they say, would not allow a new figure to emerge, but risks the return of political figures who have already harmed the State. Many Malians are placing their hopes in the coup plotters because their little-known profile indicates that they are not linked to the previous scandals and incompetence that have discredited the Malian political class.
On the other hand, it is important to remain realistic and to see if the coups in Africa have been able to provide lasting solutions to improve the living conditions of citizens. Unfortunately, most of them have had negative results: a decrease in the GDP growth rate and the investment rate, an increase in the unemployment rate, a critical humanitarian situation, an increase in violence, a retreat from democracy, and an interruption or deterioration in the relationship with the international community. In the case of Mali, the political crisis of 2020 led to a 5% increase in poverty , while the extreme poverty rate was 42.3% in 2019. In addition, the ECOWAS sanctions, which came into effect on January 13, will lead to financial asphyxiation, resulting in a cash shortage. This will have an impact on the salaries of civil servants and on the daily life of the population, hoping that it will not lead to a new coup. Certainly, the coup plotters have made it clear that they want more resources and recognition in the fight against the jihadists and that they want a change of power. However, they did not keep their word when they promised a short transition. Thus, their ambitions remain unclear, especially since they have put in place a "Fundamental Act" whose clauses prevail over those of the Constitution. Even though thousands of Malians demonstrated against the ECOWAS sanctions on Friday, January 14, and support the junta, this does not rule out the fact that the junta has seized power and is making decisions without the consent of the 20 million Malians.
The new face of Mali after these coups remains to be seen. However, it is feared that the military will remain in power for a long time. Certainly, they may have been motivated by good intentions. But as Francis Akindès says, it is power that corrupts, and the military risks being caught at their own game. It is to be hoped that the junta will soon hold free and transparent general elections and that the construction of the new Mali that will follow will not damage the country further.
WHAT IF AFRICA ASPIRED NEITHER TO THE REPUBLIC NOR TO DEMOCRACY?
Have African countries failed to build their states? When one looks at the return of the Putschists in the last two years - Mali, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso - one might be tempted to say, yes. However, contextually, it could be that the African people do not simply aspire to a form of government that has been imposed on them by Western countries. Precisely how many Africans appreciate Western democracy when we see that in Mali, the turnout for the 2018 presidential election is estimated at less than 35%? The overthrow of IBK in Mali, even though he won 67.17% of the vote, is a lesson for all African governments, because the African people do not tolerate immorality, lack of integrity or false promises.
Their wish is simple: the satisfaction of their expectations and the improvement of their living conditions. Moreover, African nations have not always had problems with authority. Before colonization, people were able to accept a delegation of power, provided that they participated in the management of the kingdoms. Today, how can we explain that in a system where the majority is supposed to dictate to the minority, it is the minority that exercises power over the country's resources? The Republic must have failed in Africa when Mali, one of the great exporters of gold, Niger one of the great exporters of uranium, the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the greatest producers of diamonds are considered one of the poorest countries in the world. But while waiting to find the appropriate institutional model for African countries and anti-coup remedies, aspiring African leaders must stop thinking that coups are normal means of transferring power, even if they generate unfortunate events. For its part, the international community must stop serving special interests at the expense of the general interest of the African people in conflict resolution.